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The State of the Fort Lewis area housing market; Feb 2008

We all know that the real estate market going into 2008 is a buyers market, what we don't know for sure is when it will turn around. Recent foreclosure data, interest rate moves by the fed, and the local economy all will have a positive impact in the near future.

In my recent Realty Trac newsletter, you will see that Thurston County foreclosures are down for the month of December 2007, the most recent data available. I attribute this to actions taken or underway by the lending industry to head off what could have turned into a real problem. My recent experience with short sales, and my experience's counseling homeowners in difficulty has demonstrated that lenders view foreclosure as a last resort, and have really stepped up to the plate with programs and proposals that buy time and provide options to homeowners who really want to hold onto their homes. Although foreclosure numbers are higher than they have been in recent years, homes in default represent a very small portion of the market. Proactive steps by the fed, the lending industry and homeowners themselves appear to be heading off the purported crisis...at least in the local area.

Recent rate cuts by the federal reserve, prompted by overall economic concerns, are already having the effect of "getting home buyers off of the fence". With 30 fixed interest rates at 5.5%, with a strong potential for further cuts, are making housing really attractive to individual home buyers as well as investors. In a slow market, optimism and the bottom line are two factors that are critical to change. The media and investors alike are certainly optimistic about our local market, and the bottom line gets a whole lot more attractive with every interest rate cut. If we see rates this spring reaching 5% or less, this buyers market will become a sellers market overnight.

Those of you who had read my other articles about the local economy, and how it pertains to the real estate market, know that the long term outlook for the Fort Lewis area is pretty spectacular. Thurston County in particular is positioned for exceptional growth for the foreseeable future. The State Government is always growing, large businesses are coming to Thurston and south Pierce county in droves, and the military bases "The force projection platform for the Pacific region" are growing and adding population on a regular basis. The geographic location of Fort Lewis and the surrounding area are also positive indicators for growth in the region. Constrained by Puget Sound to the west and the mountains to the east, growth has only one course..south. In light of this I would expect to see the area continue to expand and develop for years to come, with the end result being urbanization stretching from Seattle to Portland.

It is typical (and sensible) for home buyers to be concerned about the economic outlook for their neighborhood. With the national media crying "Chicken Little", it is easy to convince yourself to try to time the market, or to "wait for the bottom". Successful investors don't! We are at or very near the bottom at the time of this writing, and if history is a clue, markets like ours turn around quickly, and experience their biggest appreciation during the initial "bump" as all of the pent up demand jumps in. As an investor I am positioning myself to take advantage of that "bump", as a home buyer you should too.

Phil Sharp Homes; Retired Army Agent Serving the Soldiers and Airmen of Fort Lewis and McChord AFB Washington

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AREAS SERVED: DuPont, Fort Lewis, Lacey, Olympia, Tumwater, S. Tacoma areas, Tenino, Rochester, Rainier, Yelm, McKenna, Roy, Shelton, Centralia, Chehalis areas. COUNTIES SERVED: Thurston, Lewis, Mason, Grays Harbor, and areas of Pierce Real Estate.

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